At its annual State of Retail & the Consumer forum on March 20, the National Retail Federation forecasted that U.S. retail sales will increase between 2.5 % and 3.5 % in 2024, reaching between $5.23 trillion and $5.28 trillion. This figure is slightly below the 3.6 % growth recorded in 2023 but aligns with the ten‑year pre‑pandemic average, suggesting a return to more moderate, sustainable expansion in core retail—which excludes auto, gas, and restaurant sales. NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay emphasized that consumer resilience remains strong, stating, “The resiliency of consumers continues to power the American economy, and we are confident there will be moderate but steady growth through the end of the year”.
Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz noted that full‑year GDP growth is projected at around 2.3 %, with inflation easing toward 2.2 % and unemployment averaging approximately 4 %. He cautioned, however, that sustaining consumer spending will be key: “The question for 2024 ultimately is, will consumer spending maintain its resilience?” . The forecast assumes continued strength in non‑store and online sales, which are predicted to grow between 7 % and 9 %, reaching $1.47 trillion to $1.50 trillion.
Walmart U.S. President and CEO John Furner, who also chairs the NRF, highlighted a significant shift in consumer priorities during the same forum, remarking that increasing numbers of shoppers are willing to “trade off, in some cases, on prices, for things that are more convenient”. Furner emphasized convenience as a long‑lasting trend driven by shoppers’ desire to save time and reduce friction. He pointed out how technology—including artificial intelligence and enhanced delivery logistics—is enabling retailers to meet these evolving expectations faster than before.
Retailers are responding accordingly, investing heavily in omnichannel delivery systems, last‑mile logistics, and tech‑enabled experiences. These initiatives are aimed at offering consumers seamless shopping options—whether through enhanced store pick-up, curbside delivery, or faster online fulfillment. With consumer sentiment stabilizing post‑pandemic and the economic forecast appearing solid, CEOs have strategic latitude to prioritize efficiency improvements and innovation without chasing unsustainable growth.
However, challenges linger. Persistent inflation—especially in food and shelter—continues to temper some spending, and tighter credit conditions could curb consumer discretionary purchases. Additionally, mounting economic and geopolitical uncertainty means that retailers must balance investing in convenience with managing price expectations to stay competitive.
Overall, the NRF’s 2024 forecast reflects cautious confidence: growth may slow compared to pandemic-era spikes, but it is expected to be steady and enduring. Consumer demand remains healthy enough to sustain core retail expansion, but success this year will hinge on how well retailers can align convenience, price competitiveness, and technological innovation with a more pragmatic consumer mindset.
