A new report from the Business Roundtable released on June 20 reveals a sharp decline in executive sentiment, as the CEO Economic Outlook Index fell 15 points to a reading of 69—its lowest level since 2020. The drop underscores growing concerns among America’s top business leaders about the direction of the U.S. economy, particularly regarding trade policy, inflation, and future investment conditions.
The Economic Outlook Index, a quarterly survey that tracks CEO projections for sales, hiring, and capital expenditures over the next six months, reflects broad-based unease. The current reading of 69 represents a significant reversal from the previous quarter and is now well below the long-term average of 83. According to the Business Roundtable, this level of pessimism has not been seen since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, when economic uncertainty was at its peak.
Business Roundtable President Joshua Bolten attributed the decline to several interlocking factors. Chief among them is uncertainty around trade policies, particularly the potential for new tariffs and geopolitical disruptions that could impact global supply chains. In addition, persistent inflation—though easing from its peak—continues to drive up input costs, challenging profit margins and complicating investment planning. Bolten stressed that these conditions have made it more difficult for CEOs to commit to long-term hiring or capital expansion initiatives.
The report also highlighted that all three components of the index—sales expectations, hiring plans, and capital investment—declined this quarter. CEOs expressed particular concern about cost volatility and regulatory uncertainty. These headwinds, combined with cautious consumer spending and weaker demand forecasts, have led many executives to scale back their growth plans or delay strategic investments.
The broader context of the index’s decline also includes political uncertainty as the U.S. enters a presidential election cycle. Several business leaders have privately cited concerns about policy inconsistency and the possibility of abrupt shifts in fiscal and regulatory frameworks following the election. With issues like corporate taxes, trade agreements, and infrastructure funding hanging in the balance, many CEOs are taking a wait-and-see approach.
Notably, the downturn in confidence comes despite some resilience in the overall economy. The U.S. labor market remains relatively strong, and consumer spending has not contracted significantly. However, the disconnect between macro-level indicators and corporate sentiment suggests that executives are bracing for potential turbulence ahead. This sentiment is mirrored in recent Federal Reserve communications, which point to lingering inflation risks and a cautious path for interest rate adjustments.
Joshua Bolten called for greater policy clarity to restore executive confidence. He emphasized the need for a stable regulatory environment and trade policies that support growth and innovation. Without such predictability, he warned, corporate America may continue to delay critical investments that drive job creation and economic expansion.
For now, the steep drop in the CEO Economic Outlook Index serves as a clear signal that U.S. businesses are entering a more defensive posture. While not yet signaling recession, the data point to a more restrained corporate climate, where caution—not ambition—is shaping boardroom strategies.
