On March 28, 2024, the U.S. Census Bureau issued an expanded version of its Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS), incorporating a specialized artificial intelligence (AI) supplement alongside its biweekly survey rhythm. This marks a major leap forward—BTOS now captures metrics on AI usage across a broad swath of employer businesses, offering insight into how American firms are stepping into digital transformation.
The revamped BTOS, launched in February 2024, reaches approximately 1.2 million employer establishments—including multi-location firms—collected via six panels of around 200,000 responses every two weeks. The new AI supplement, fielded from December 4, 2023, through February 25, 2024, asks businesses to report on whether they currently use AI to produce goods or services, what AI technologies they deploy, plans for future use, and how AI is shaping employment, tasks, organizational structure, and workflow.
According to Census working papers and supporting reports, AI adoption among businesses is still modest but growing rapidly. From September 2023 to February 2024, the share of firms using AI rose from 3.7% to 5.4%, with a projected climb to roughly 6.6% by fall 2024. The AI use snapshot reveals sectoral and geographic differences. The information sector leads adoption, with around 18% using AI—up from 13.8% in late 2023. Professional, scientific, and technical services trail at roughly 12%, while educational services, finance and insurance, and management hover around 8–9%. Adoption by industry is lower in construction, agriculture, and accommodation and food services, often only 1–2%. Geographically, AI usage peaks in states like Colorado (7.4%) and the District of Columbia (7.2%), with lower usage seen in states like Mississippi (1.7%).
The supplement delves into what AI tools businesses are deploying. Common applications include marketing automation, virtual agents and chatbots, natural language processing, text and data analytics, and voice recognition. Other emerging uses involve large language models, recommendation systems, image recognition, neural networks, and robotics process automation.
Businesses using AI report not only incremental task automation but also strategic organizational changes. These include staff training, redesigning workflows, and increased investment in cloud infrastructure and storage. Despite concerns about job displacement, only a minority—around 25% of AI-using firms—report AI is replacing worker tasks; net employment effects so far appear minimal, with only 5% reporting net changes. And when changes occur, job creation has outpaced job loss.
Analysis by the Census indicates larger firms show the highest AI rates; however, recent trends suggest the smallest firms (1–4 employees) are increasing adoption faster than mid-size counterparts. From September 2023 to August 2024, AI usage among the largest firms grew from 5.2% to 7.8%, while very small firms rose from 4.6% to 5.8%. This signals that AI—especially generative AI—may be lowering entry barriers for smaller players in areas like marketing, content creation, and customer service automation.
The enriched BTOS dataset provides unprecedented real-time insights for executives, investors, and policymakers. The biweekly cadence allows tracking of adoption trends and strategic monitoring of AI-related investment across sectors and regions. For CEOs, understanding where competitors stand in AI adoption offers benchmarking tools to refine strategy, assess labor impacts, and manage modernization. Policymakers and regulators gain early glimpses into diffusion hotspots and labor market dynamics, enabling more timely policy calibration.
The Census Bureau plans to keep core AI questions in BTOS at least through August 2024 and is considering another AI supplement in 2025 to expand coverage—possibly including generative AI and its implications for employment, equity, and infrastructure. Future efforts within the Annual Business Survey (ABS) and other datasets will add depth to the evolving picture, integrating AI use with investment, R&D, and business performance measures.
Although overall use remains under 10%, data from BTOS, Census working papers, and industry analysts characterize a “quiet revolution tranquille”—gradual yet accelerating AI diffusion across the U.S. economy. As adoption widens, the Census Bureau’s high-frequency AI analytics will play a critical role in mapping the technology’s trajectory, workforce effects, and economic impact.
