With the U.S. presidential election just days away on November 5, Wall Street surged on November 4, as investors bet on a potential Trump victory bringing a pro-business policy shift—particularly in deregulation and antitrust oversight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped nearly 400 points amid widespread enthusiasm. Bank and tech stocks led the advance, while energy names also climbed on expectations of looser fossil-fuel policies.
On the final trading day before the vote, U.S. equities rallied broadly. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted solid gains ahead of results, lifting the Dow by around 400 points—its largest pre-election jump in years. This rally reflected growing confidence that, should Trump return, deregulation and tax relief would support corporate profits.
Financial stocks outpaced the broader market. Heavyweights like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America each rose over 3–4% that day. A Trump victory could slow or reverse Biden-era restrictions, including Basel III capital standards, CFPB protections, and tougher SEC oversight. Executive enthusiasm is building as well, with Morgan Stanley analysts forecasting a roughly 20% jump in M&A activity in 2025 if antitrust barriers ease.
The tech sector, often the focus of increased antitrust enforcement, also gained. Major technology firms are expected to benefit if oversight by bodies like the FTC and DOJ is relaxed. Fossil fuel companies similarly climbed in value, boosted by expectations of revived permitting, scaled-back environmental mandates, and revised energy regulations.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon described the election as a potential catalyst for a “capital markets super-cycle.” According to Bloomberg, Solomon believes incoming policies could significantly boost M&A and IPO pipelines in 2025. He noted that easing policy-related uncertainty is key to unlocking pent-up corporate activity.
Morgan Stanley strategists also projected that, with political clarity after the election, the S&P 500 could gain another 5% before year’s end. However, they cautioned that sustaining the rally into 2025 will depend on corporate earnings and valuations, not just political sentiment.
Dealmakers are already preparing for a potential surge in transactions. With Trump expected to install leadership at the FTC and DOJ favorable to mergers, large-scale deals could face fewer regulatory hurdles. This has led to growing expectations of consolidation across industries such as telecoms, pharmaceuticals, and media. Banks and private equity firms, flush with capital, are well-positioned to capitalize.
Industry sentiment appears upbeat. Financial executives anticipate a shift at key regulatory agencies, which could stall or reverse pending SEC proposals. Private equity groups and asset managers are also optimistic about the prospects for easier fundraising and expanded retail access to alternative investment products.
Still, some analysts and policy experts warn that aggressive deregulation could bring risks. Looser oversight may threaten financial stability, erode consumer protections, and invite global regulatory pushback. There is also concern that any return to Trump-era tariff policies could disrupt trade and negatively impact earnings for multinationals.
This rally builds on a broader upswing for U.S. equities in 2024. Driven by an AI-fueled tech boom, solid corporate earnings, and steady inflows of global capital, the S&P 500 had already posted gains of over 20% this year. The Federal Reserve’s trajectory remains a key consideration, with bond yields hovering near 5% and investors closely watching inflation indicators.
Market participants are now bracing for what’s next. The outcome of the November 5 election will likely set the tone for policy and economic expectations in 2025. Investors are watching closely for any changes in leadership at the SEC, FTC, and other regulatory bodies, which could materially affect business operations and investment flows. Additionally, renewed trade tensions or interest rate shocks could counteract the bullish momentum.
Wall Street is currently trading on confidence that a Trump reelection will usher in sweeping deregulation, potentially fueling a sustained rally in sectors like banking, tech, and energy. But while markets are betting on growth and fewer restrictions, the longer-term impact will depend on how policies are implemented and how global economic forces respond.
